Navigating The Shifting Sands of NYC Real Estate: A Summer 2025 Update
As August 2025 draws to a close, we reflect on an interesting and evolving year in New York City real estate. After a strong start in the first half, the market experienced a notable slowdown as summer approached. This shift has been significant enough that I've received calls from listing agents in buildings where we also hold listings, sheepishly asking, "How are you doing?"
For many who began their real estate careers or entered the market over the last decade, the norm has been a largely upward trajectory, punctuated by only occasional bumps. This was largely driven by the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy, which kept the 10-year Treasury rate near zero and, in turn, mortgage rates around 2%.
Some Potential Headwinds
However, it’s worth remembering a time when seasonality was a defining characteristic of New York City real estate markets. Historically, sales activity would begin to slow in June and continue this trend into August, often reaching an abrupt halt as buyers focused on maximizing their summer. Although I don't think this is the complete picture, as we're still faced with significant geopolitical headwinds and let's not forget 7% interest rates.
The rental market, conversely, would experience its busiest period in July and August, with renters scrambling to secure housing before Labor Day. This was largely influenced by academic schedules and the job market cycle.
Adjusting To Market Cycles
If your experience with New York City real estate, whether as an agent, buyer, or seller, has been primarily within the last 10 or so years, you've largely known a period of favorable conditions. This era included extremely bullish cycles where, as the saying goes, "everything sold including the kitchen sink." During these peak periods, our small team was selling over 75 apartments per year – an exceptional achievement.
Even for a seasoned expert like myself, with over 30 years of practice in New York City real estate, it's not always easy to go with the ebb and flow of the various real estate market cycles. Subsequently, conversations I'm now having with buyers, and especially sellers, have a distinctly different tone than in the fairly recent past. It's important to be reactive whether buying or selling real estate, listen to an experienced broker and take an honest look at the data.
Beyond the Market Reports: Our Value Proposition
I find it interesting to observe the consistently upbeat market reports disseminated online by some agents and brokers. However, the data relevant to New York City, and certainly the broader national trends we're observing, point towards a more challenging real estate environment.
In my opinion, purchasing a home, whether for yourself or your family, has always been partly an emotional decision with significant financial considerations. Even the most pragmatic client, armed with a spreadsheet, can find themselves captivated when they fall in love with a home.
Beyond offering direct value through commission rebates and reduced listing commissions, we believe our highest contribution to your transaction lies in our extensive experience. We can help you:
Avoid purchasing a home that will be challenging to sell when faced with cyclical headwinds.
Provide an accurate and in-depth opinion on any property you're considering.
Work with you to maintain a level head while negotiating on your behalf.
Provide an insightful and honest opinion on the value of your home based on data and current market conditions. We will never try to 'buy' your listing by overinflating the price.
This comprehensive insight empowers you to make informed decisions about moving forward with a purchase or sale.
We hope you are all having a wonderful summer! We look forward to helping you with any of your real estate needs, now or in the future, whether you're buying, selling, or even renting a property. Please always feel free to reach out to me by phone, email, or text. I'm always happy to discuss real estate with you, whether or not you become a client.
Best regards,
Keith